NFL playoff predictions

The NFL’s Divisional Round is usually where the postseason stops being chaotic and starts being revealing. The top seeds are rested, the surviving road teams are battle-tested, and game plans get sharper. This year’s Divisional weekend runs Saturday–Sunday, Jan. 17–18, 2026.

Confirmed Divisional Round schedule (ET)

• Bills at Broncos — Sat, Jan. 17, 4:30 p.m. ET — CBS

• 49ers at Seahawks — Sat, Jan. 17, 8:00 p.m. ET — FOX

• Texans at Patriots — Sun, Jan. 18, 3:00 p.m. ET — ESPN/ABC

• Rams at Bears — Sun, Jan. 18, 6:30 p.m. ET — NBC/Peacock (also Telemundo/Universo)

Read more:

- How to Watch NFL Divisional Playoffs: Kickoff Times, TV Channels, Streaming Options, and Local-Market Notes

- NFL Divisional Playoffs 2026: Full Schedule, Matchups, Predictions, and How to Watch

AFC

Bills at Broncos (CBS)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Market snapshot: Broncos favored by ~1.5 (early line context).

Tactical keys

1) Denver’s pass rush vs. Buffalo’s dropback rhythm
Divisional games often come down to whether the underdog can keep the favorite from playing “on script.” If Denver can generate pressure with four, it can play tighter coverage behind it and force Buffalo into long third downs.

2) First 15 plays (tempo + early points)
Buffalo is at its most dangerous when it scores early and turns the game into a pace battle. Denver’s best counter is long, physical drives that keep Buffalo’s offense on the sideline and shrink possessions.

3) Turnover threshold

The simplest playoff truth: if Buffalo plays a clean turnover game, it’s hard to beat. If Buffalo gives away a short field, Denver suddenly has the perfect playoff script.

Quarterback matchup: “creation” vs. “structure”

Even without naming specifics, the contrast is clear: Buffalo’s quarterback profile is about creation and explosive plays; Denver’s approach tends to be structure, timing, and avoiding negative plays. In January, creation can win you a game you “shouldn’t” win—but it also invites sacks and strip chances if protection breaks.

Upset potential: Medium

This is the classic “tight spread, home team, defense can travel” setup. Denver is also an elite home venue in January, and the line says it’s basically a coin flip.

Prediction: Broncos advance

When the top seed is at home, favored (even slightly), and built around defense + situational football, it’s the profile that survives close playoff games. I see Denver winning a one-score game if it avoids giving Buffalo short fields.

Texans at Patriots (ESPN/ABC)

Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET Sunday at Gillette Stadium
Market snapshot: Patriots favored by ~3 (early).

Tactical keys

1) Patriots’ “no free points” game vs. Texans’ disruption

New England playoff football, historically, is about forcing opponents to earn every yard and every point. Houston’s best path is to create sudden-change moments: sacks that flip field position, a tipped-ball INT, a forced fumble that becomes points.

2) Red zone: TDs or field goals

This is the matchup where settling for three is a slow death. If Houston moves the ball but kicks field goals, New England can stay calm and control the pace. If Houston finishes drives, it can force New England out of its comfort zone.

3) Injury and coverage stress

Houston’s ability to challenge New England’s perimeter coverage matters, especially with New England listing notable defensive players on the injury report (for example, Christian Gonzalez was listed questionable in ESPN’s preview page at the time of publishing).
(Always re-check final actives/inactives the morning of the game.)

Quarterback matchup: patience vs. protection

This game is usually decided by who stays patient when the defense wins early snaps. The quarterback who avoids panic throws on second-and-long gives his team a real chance late.

Upset potential: Low-to-medium

Houston is good enough to win, but the betting market and home-field lean toward New England, and Gillette in January tends to reward the team that plays cleaner football.

Prediction: Patriots advance

I’m taking New England because the game shape screams “situational grind”: fewer possessions, heavy third-down leverage, and a fourth quarter where one mistake decides it. New England is built for exactly that.

NFC

49ers at Seahawks (FOX)

Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET Saturday at Lumen Field
Market snapshot: Seahawks favored by about a touchdown in multiple books (range has floated).

Tactical keys

1) Seattle’s home advantage + pass protection

Lumen Field is loud, and that matters. Silent counts, false starts, and communication busts can kill drives. If San Francisco’s protection unit holds up early, the entire upset conversation changes.

2) 49ers’ “efficient” drives vs. Seahawks’ explosives

Seattle can win games by hitting a few high-value plays. San Francisco’s best counter is long, methodical drives that turn the game into a possession-by-possession test.

3) Injury context

There has been notable discussion around San Francisco’s injury concerns (including George Kittle’s status being a storyline in market reaction).
If key playmakers are limited, that generally shows up most on third down and in the red zone.

Quarterback matchup: explosives vs. defensive discipline

Seattle will want to stress the 49ers vertically and with play-action looks. San Francisco’s defense typically tries to remove easy explosives and force long, perfect drives. The team that wins early downs (and avoids 2nd-and-11/3rd-and-9) dictates the game.

Upset potential: High

Rivalry familiarity plus a big spread is the recipe for volatility. The 49ers have already shown they can surprise, and a line that large often creates value on the underdog if the game stays close into the fourth.

Prediction: Seahawks advance

I’ll take Seattle because (1) home field, (2) market confidence, and (3) the way playoff games tighten late. But of all four games, this is the one where I’d be least shocked by an upset.

Rams at Bears (NBC/Peacock)

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC + Peacock; also Telemundo/Universo)
Market snapshot: Rams favored by a field goal-ish to ~4.5 (early).

Tactical keys

1) Rams’ pass game vs. Bears’ young-QB protection plan

NBC’s own preview frames this as Matthew Stafford vs. rookie Caleb Williams, which tells you exactly what the spotlight is.
Chicago’s offense needs a plan that doesn’t ask the rookie to win 45-dropback football. Expect quick game, defined reads, and movement throws—especially early.

2) Can Chicago win without a turnover advantage?

A sharp critique floating around this matchup is that Chicago’s playoff run has relied heavily on takeaways, and when they don’t force them, they lose more often.
That’s harsh, but the core idea matters: if the Bears don’t win the takeaway battle, can they still score enough?

3) Rams’ ball security + finishing drives

The Rams’ cleanest path is to avoid the one thing that fuels a young home underdog: short fields. If Los Angeles keeps turnovers low and converts red-zone trips into touchdowns, Chicago has to chase.

Quarterback matchup: Stafford’s experience vs. Caleb’s ceiling

This is the classic playoff contrast: veteran who’s seen every coverage vs. rookie who can create but is also facing the fastest defensive chess of his life.

Upset potential: Medium

Home crowd and defensive variance always give the underdog a puncher’s chance, but the early market leaning Rams suggests the matchup may favor Los Angeles in the trenches and in passing efficiency.

Prediction: Rams advance

I’m picking the Rams because Stafford experience plus an offense that can score in multiple ways is usually what wins this round—especially if the underdog needs turnovers to keep up.

Projected Conference Championship games

AFC Championship projection: Broncos vs. Patriots

If this hits, it’s a classic “complete-team football” matchup: defense, field position, and making the other quarterback play left-handed. The team that wins third down usually wins the game.

NFC Championship projection: Seahawks vs. Rams

A divisional familiarity factor (Seattle vs. L.A.) with two teams that can win ugly or win pretty. That’s usually the profile of a Super Bowl representative.

Super Bowl path analysis: who looks best right now?

• Safest profile (least upset-prone): Patriots — home, favored, structured, and built for situational games.

• Most explosive “ceiling” team: Bills — but they draw a tricky road spot where turnovers decide everything.

• Most live underdog: 49ers — rivalry + big spread = late-game chaos potential.

• Most interesting QB storyline: Bears — rookie Caleb Williams on the biggest stage against Stafford is the weekend’s headline matchup.

Final takeaway

If the Wild Card Round is about survival, the Divisional Round is about legitimacy. The teams that advance to the Conference Championships won’t just be talented—they’ll be adaptable, disciplined, and composed under pressure.

Those traits, more than seeding or star power, usually determine who keeps their Super Bowl dream alive.