What Comes Next for Venezuela?
Venezuela’s political future is entering a volatile new phase after U.S. President Donald Trump said Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured during U.S. strikes and removed from the country. Trump now says the next steps are still being decided — but he also signaled that Washington intends to play a direct role in shaping what comes next.
In remarks to Fox News and during ongoing public briefings covered by major outlets, Trump said the United States would be “very much” involved in Venezuela’s governance and claimed the U.S. would “run the country” temporarily until a “safe, proper” transition can be put in place.
Read more: Who Could Be Venezuela’s Next President? Delcy Rodríguez or María Machado
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| "And we want to do liberty for the people,” Trump told Fox News in a phone interview today |
1) The immediate power question: Who is governing in Caracas?
On the Venezuelan side, officials have not confirmed Maduro’s removal and instead are projecting continuity. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez demanded “proof of life” for Maduro and his wife, reflecting both defiance and uncertainty about his whereabouts. India Today+1
Defense leaders have issued messages calling for national unity and military deployment, and the government has declared a “state of external commotion,” effectively an emergency posture aimed at deterring internal disorder and external pressure. India Today+1
The gap between Washington’s claims and Caracas’s messaging is central to what comes next: if Venezuelan institutions (military, courts, state media) continue operating under the ruling coalition, the transition could become a prolonged legitimacy fight rather than a clean handover.
Read more: Where Is Nicolás Maduro Now? The Fate of Venezuela’s President and His Wife
2) Washington’s transition plan: “We’re making that decision now”
Trump told Fox News his administration is deciding governance options in real time, arguing the U.S. cannot “take a chance” that another leader simply continues Maduro’s system.
That language points to several possible U.S.-preferred paths:
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A caretaker arrangement with Venezuelan insiders (potentially involving Rodríguez) to keep the state functioning while negotiating security and economic steps.
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An opposition-led interim authority, potentially tied to internationally backed electoral timelines.
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A hybrid transition council, designed to avoid total collapse while giving Washington strong leverage over security, energy, and sanctions relief.
Publicly, Trump has also suggested the U.S. will be “very strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil sector, a signal that energy governance could become part of any transition framework.
3) The legal track: If Maduro is transferred, what happens?
Trump and allied coverage have repeatedly referenced Maduro’s U.S. indictment and the possibility of prosecution in New York. While the legal details depend on custody confirmation and court filings, the political impact is already clear: a criminal case would raise sovereignty questions, complicate diplomatic bargaining, and potentially harden positions inside Venezuela.
4) Venezuela’s international move: Pushing the fight to the UN Security Council
Caracas has requested an urgent UN Security Council meeting, framing the U.S. action as “armed aggression” and urging international scrutiny. Reports cite Foreign Minister Yván Gil Pinto saying Venezuela submitted a formal letter to the UN.
A Security Council session is unlikely to produce quick enforcement action, but it can shape global opinion, amplify calls for restraint, and create diplomatic costs — especially as major powers split over the legality and precedent of cross-border strikes.
5) Regional risk: Colombia fortifies the border; fears of spillover
The clearest near-term consequence may be regional instability. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has rejected attacks on Venezuela’s sovereignty and announced deployments to the Venezuela border, reflecting concern about refugee flows, armed group movement, and border clashes.
Border states are often the first to absorb the shock of Venezuelan upheaval. Even modest escalation can strain migration routes, humanitarian services, and security conditions along crossings.
6) Global reaction: Condemnation, caution, and competing narratives
International reaction has been fast and divided. Russia and China have condemned the U.S. use of force and called for restraint and dialogue, while other governments have urged verification and de-escalation as facts remain contested.
This matters because Venezuela’s next phase will depend heavily on recognition: which governments treat a new authority as legitimate, who controls access to international banking and oil markets, and whether sanctions tighten or lift.
What to watch next: the five signals that will decide the outcome
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Independent confirmation of Maduro’s status (custody evidence, court filings, verified video proof-of-life).
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The Venezuelan military’s posture (public unity vs. fractures, chain-of-command clarity).
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U.S. announcements on governance (transition authority, timelines, and conditions).
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UN Security Council dynamics (statements, draft resolutions, veto threats).
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Border and migration indicators (Colombia deployments, crossings, humanitarian alerts).
Bottom line
Trump is signaling a hands-on U.S. role in Venezuela’s next chapter, including transitional governance and potentially the oil sector — while Venezuelan officials demand proof of life and seek international backing at the UN.
Until independent confirmation resolves Maduro’s status and Caracas’s power centers show which way they will move, Venezuela’s “day after” will remain a high-stakes contest between competing claims, institutions, and international influence.
