Potential Upsets in the NFL Divisional Round
Potential Upsets in the NFL Divisional Round

The Divisional Round is often labeled the “predictable” stage of the NFL playoffs. Top seeds are rested. Home teams are favored. On paper, things make sense.

In reality, this is the round where underdogs with the right profile strike. Not because they’re lucky, but because playoff football rewards a few specific traits: quarterback resilience, defensive pressure, and the ability to win ugly.

Below are the underdogs worth watching closely this weekend, why their matchup gives them upset potential, and how history supports the idea that surprises are very much on the table.

What actually creates a Divisional Round upset?

Before naming teams, it’s worth defining what real upset potential looks like. In the Divisional Round, upsets usually come from teams that:

  • Can pressure the quarterback without blitzing

  • Have a QB who protects the ball under stress

  • Are comfortable playing slow, low-possession games

  • Don’t rely solely on explosive offense to win

Teams missing those traits rarely survive this round.

1. Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Why Houston is the underdog
New England enters at home, favored, and built on postseason experience. The Patriots’ formula is familiar: control tempo, avoid mistakes, and force opponents to play perfect football.

Why the upset is real
Houston’s defense gives them a path that most underdogs don’t have. They can:

  • Generate pressure with four

  • Force negative plays early in drives

  • Create sudden-change moments that flip field position

If the Texans can steal one early possession with a turnover or special-teams swing, the game script changes immediately.

Key swing factor
Red-zone efficiency. Houston cannot settle for field goals. Touchdowns are the price of admission for an upset here.

Upset probability: Moderate
This isn’t a shootout upset. It’s a grind-it-out, one-mistake-decides-it scenario.

2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Why San Francisco is the underdog
Seattle is at home, heavily favored, and owns one of the loudest playoff environments in the league. Lumen Field matters in January.

Why the upset is very real
This is a divisional rivalry, and those behave differently in the playoffs. San Francisco knows Seattle’s tendencies, protections, and route concepts better than most opponents.

More importantly:

  • The 49ers are built to limit explosive plays

  • They can shorten the game with methodical drives

  • They’re comfortable winning 20–17 instead of 34–31

Big underdogs become dangerous when they can remove variance, and that’s exactly how San Francisco prefers to play.

Key swing factor
Early protection. If the 49ers avoid drive-killing sacks in the first quarter, belief creeps in fast.

Upset probability: High
Among all Divisional matchups, this is the one most likely to break expectations.

3. Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Why the Rams are the underdog
Chicago is at home, playing in winter conditions, and built around defense and ball control. Rookie quarterbacks typically don’t face this pressure — but the Bears’ opponent does.

Why the upset path exists
Los Angeles has one major advantage that underdogs rarely possess: quarterback experience. In the Divisional Round, that matters more than scheme.

The Rams can win if:

  • They protect the ball

  • They score touchdowns, not field goals

  • They force Chicago’s offense to chase

If the Bears fall behind and have to abandon a conservative plan, the matchup tilts.

Key swing factor
Third-and-long defense. If the Rams consistently force Chicago into long-yardage situations, the upset window opens.

Upset probability: Medium
Not explosive, but very real if the Rams dictate pace early.

Why Divisional Round upsets keep happening (history matters)

Despite favorites advancing more often than not, Divisional Round upsets are not rare. Over the last two decades, roughly one-third of Divisional games have been won by teams that were:

  • Road teams

  • Underdogs by four or more points

  • Coming off Wild Card weekend

What those teams shared wasn’t star power. It was situational excellence: fewer penalties, better red-zone execution, and patience when the game tightened.

The most dangerous underdog profile this weekend

If you’re looking for the single trait most associated with a Divisional upset, it’s this:

A defense that can pressure the quarterback without sacrificing coverage.

Every underdog listed above fits that description to some degree. That’s why they’re live.

Final takeaway

The Divisional Round doesn’t reward desperation. It rewards teams that can stay calm when nothing is easy.

Favorites usually advance — but when they don’t, it’s almost always because an underdog forced the game into uncomfortable territory. This weekend has multiple matchups where that’s possible.

Don’t assume chalk.
Don’t assume blowouts.
And don’t assume the lower seed is just happy to be here.

History says otherwise.