Team-by-Team Super Bowl Path Analysis
Team-by-Team Super Bowl Path Analysis

The bracket is set, the regular season is over, and the 2026 NFL Playoffs now shift into single-elimination mode. While all 14 teams earned their place, their paths to Super Bowl LX are far from equal. Seeding, home-field advantage, and matchup dynamics will matter as much as raw talent.

AFC SUPER BOWL PATHS

Denver Broncos

Path: Divisional Round → AFC Championship → Super Bowl
As the AFC’s No. 1 seed, Denver benefits from rest and home field. Their challenge comes later: beating a battle-tested opponent that already survived Wild Card Weekend. Protecting the quarterback and avoiding slow starts will determine whether their regular-season dominance carries into January.

New England Patriots

Path: Wild Card (home) → Divisional → AFC Championship
New England’s Super Bowl hopes hinge on discipline. They’re well-coached and comfortable in close games, but offensive consistency will be tested against elite defenses. A clean Wild Card win is essential to building momentum.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Path: Wild Card (home) → Divisional → AFC Championship
Jacksonville’s route depends on quarterback efficiency. If they avoid turnovers and control tempo, they can win at home. Road games against physical opponents, however, shrink their margin for error quickly.

Los Angeles Chargers

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → AFC Championship
The Chargers’ ceiling is high, but their path is steep. Winning on the road immediately is non-negotiable. If they get hot early, they become a dangerous spoiler, but consistency remains the question.

Buffalo Bills

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → AFC Championship
Buffalo’s Super Bowl chances depend on execution in tight moments. They have the talent to beat anyone, but must avoid self-inflicted mistakes. If they survive Wild Card Weekend, confidence grows fast.

Houston Texans

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → AFC Championship
Houston enters with little external pressure, which can be an advantage. To go deep, they must turn games into defensive battles and win field-position fights. Shootouts generally favor opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → AFC Championship
Pittsburgh’s formula is familiar: defense, discipline, and grinding wins. Their Super Bowl path requires slowing down faster offenses and keeping games close into the fourth quarter. They won’t win pretty, but they can win ugly.

NFC SUPER BOWL PATHS

Seattle Seahawks

Path: Divisional Round → NFC Championship → Super Bowl
The NFC’s No. 1 seed owns the cleanest path. Home-field advantage and rest matter, but Seattle must avoid complacency. Their toughest test likely comes against a road-hardened opponent in the conference title game.

Chicago Bears

Path: Wild Card (home) → Divisional → NFC Championship
Chicago’s Super Bowl hopes hinge on defense traveling well. A home Wild Card win sets the tone, but road playoff football will test their offensive limits. Ball control is key.

Philadelphia Eagles

Path: Wild Card (home) → Divisional → NFC Championship
Philadelphia is built for playoff football, but consistency has been uneven. Their path requires dominating at home early and avoiding long third-down situations defensively.

Carolina Panthers

Path: Wild Card (home) → Divisional → NFC Championship
As NFC South champions, Carolina earned hosting rights, but faces a steep climb. Their Super Bowl route demands mistake-free football and defensive resilience against stronger opponents.

Los Angeles Rams

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → NFC Championship
Experience is the Rams’ advantage. Winning on the road immediately is mandatory, but if they do, they’re capable of making games uncomfortable for higher seeds.

San Francisco 49ers

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → NFC Championship
San Francisco’s path is demanding but familiar. Health and physicality will determine whether they can survive consecutive road games. Their margin for error is thin, but their upside remains high.

Green Bay Packers

Path: Wild Card (road) → Divisional → NFC Championship
Green Bay enters as the NFC’s No. 7 seed with little to lose. Their Super Bowl path requires immediate composure in hostile environments. Any early win would dramatically change expectations.

Final Perspective

Every playoff team starts with hope, but Super Bowl paths are shaped by reality. Top seeds like Denver and Seattle control their destiny, while lower seeds must survive instantly. History suggests one unexpected team will break through — but reaching February still demands three or four complete performances.

In the 2026 NFL Playoffs, talent opens the door. Execution decides who walks through it.