NFL Week 13, Thanksgiving 2024: Picks, and Predictions for 16 Games

Jenny Lee November 26, 2024 | 04:43

Thanksgiving week brings us a packed NFL schedule with 16 games spread across Thursday to Monday. With playoff races heating up, let’s dive into the key matchups and explore the insights behind our Week 13 picks and predictions.

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Overview: NFL Week 13 -Thanksgiving Week

As Thanksgiving approaches, NFL Week 13 offers fans and bettors a packed slate of 16 games, including the traditional Thanksgiving Day matchups and a Monday Night Football showdown. This is the point in the season where playoff aspirations meet midseason fatigue, creating an unpredictable and exciting environment. Every game carries implications, whether for playoff positioning, wildcard berths, or simply pride for teams no longer in contention.

This week’s action begins with three games on Thanksgiving, starting with the Detroit Lions hosting the Chicago Bears and culminating in a chilly evening clash between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers. Beyond Thanksgiving, pivotal divisional matchups and high-stakes interconference games ensure there’s plenty of drama.

Our predictions for Week 13 leverage insights from Power Rankings+ metrics, team analytics, and historical trends. These tools help identify the smartest bets, including potential upsets, teaser plays, and games best avoided. Whether you’re wagering on point spreads, moneylines, or over/unders, our detailed analysis aims to provide clarity in what promises to be an unpredictable week.

Let’s explore each matchup, breaking down the key factors and offering actionable betting advice.

Learn more: NFL Week 13 - Full Schedule for Nov. 28 - Dec. 2 Games: Dates, Times, Key Matchups, Predictions

NFL Week 13, Thanksgiving Week 2024: Picks, and Predictions for 16 Games

NFL Week 13 - Picks and Predictions for All 16 Games

NFL Week 13 Game-by-Game Picks and Predictions

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5)

Moneyline: Bears +425; Lions -575
Total: 48

The Lions are arguably the best team Detroit has seen in decades. Leading the NFC North and ranking atop the Power Rankings+ metric, they’ve consistently outperformed expectations this season. With a 9-2 ATS record, they’ve been a reliable team for bettors, especially at home. However, history casts a shadow - Detroit hasn’t won a Thanksgiving game since 2016, and the Bears have beaten them three times on Turkey Day in recent years.

Chicago has shown resilience in recent weeks, covering spreads against both the Vikings and Packers. While the Lions should win, the short week and a looming matchup against Green Bay next Thursday make covering a double-digit spread tricky. A teaser pairing Detroit at -4.5 and an adjusted under at 54 feels safer than taking the full spread.

Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 17

Pick: Lions -4.5 & Under 54 in a teaser

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4)

Moneyline: Giants +164; Cowboys -198
Total: 38

This game features backup quarterbacks Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush, making it less appealing for both fans and bettors. While Dallas has an edge based on team metrics, neither team inspires confidence. Given the unpredictability of backups on a short week, this game is better left untouched.

Prediction: Cowboys 21, Giants 17

Pick: Pass

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Moneyline: Dolphins +154; Packers -185
Total: 47.5

In the nightcap on Thanksgiving, Lambeau Field provides a frigid backdrop for two offensively talented teams. Green Bay holds a slight edge due to its tougher schedule and superior special teams. Miami’s offense thrives against weaker teams but has struggled when facing stronger opponents. The freezing temperatures, dipping to 25°F, give Green Bay a distinct advantage as Miami adjusts to the cold.

If the line moves to -3 for the Packers, they become a smart play. Until then, this game might hinge on in-game betting opportunities.

Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 20

Pick: Packers -3 (if available)

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Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13)

Moneyline: Raiders +525; Chiefs -750
Total: 42.5

The Chiefs should bounce back after an underwhelming performance against the Panthers. Facing a Raiders team trending downward, Kansas City is well-positioned to dominate. While laying 13 points feels steep, teasing the Chiefs to -7 offers a safer approach. Expect the defense to stifle a struggling Las Vegas offense.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 13

Pick: Chiefs -7 in a teaser

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at New York Jets

Moneyline: Seahawks -125; Jets +105
Total: 42

Seattle enters this game with momentum after back-to-back divisional wins, but their inconsistency makes them a risky pick. The Jets’ internal struggles add further unpredictability. While the Seahawks have a slight edge on paper, the game’s many variables make it difficult to confidently back either side.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Jets 20

Pick: Pass

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Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Moneyline: Texans -265; Jaguars +215
Total: 43

Trevor Lawrence’s availability will significantly influence this line. Houston, though inconsistent, has been strong in spots. Teasing the Texans to a near-moneyline play or taking them ATS under -4.5 are the best strategies, particularly if Lawrence sits out.

Prediction: Texans 26, Jaguars 20

Pick: Texans ML in a teaser or ATS under -4

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Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-6)

Moneyline: Titans +215; Commanders -265
Total: 44

The Commanders’ recent struggles make them hard to trust despite their superior metrics. Tennessee, meanwhile, has shown incremental improvements but remains a volatile team. Betting on this game involves significant risk on both sides.

Prediction: Commanders 24, Titans 20

Pick: Pass

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Moneyline: Cardinals +164; Vikings -198
Total: 46.5

Minnesota’s balanced defense gives them the edge against an Arizona team that struggles in road games. Kyler Murray’s playmaking ability remains a wild card, but the Vikings should handle this matchup comfortably.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Cardinals 20

Pick: Vikings -4

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Carolina Panthers

Moneyline: Buccaneers -270; Panthers +220
Total: 46

The Panthers have improved offensively, but Tampa Bay’s overall strength should prove too much. Instead of taking the full spread, teasing Tampa Bay’s moneyline or betting the over in a potentially high-scoring affair feels safer.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 23

Pick: Buccaneers ML in a teaser and Over 46

NFL Thanksging Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Moneyline: Eagles +120; Ravens -142
Total: 50

This matchup could be Week 13’s most exciting game, with two playoff-caliber teams squaring off. The Eagles’ grind-it-out offense and superior defense match up well against Baltimore. While metrics slightly favor the Ravens, the Eagles’ recent form makes them the better pick.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Ravens 23

Pick: Eagles +2.5

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Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Moneyline: Chargers -125; Falcons +105
Total: 47

The Chargers are at a scheduling disadvantage, traveling cross-country for an early kickoff after playing a late game in Week 12. While the Chargers boast a more balanced team on paper, their inconsistency—especially on defense—makes this a tricky spot. The Falcons, fresh off a bye, could take advantage of a tired Los Angeles squad.

If the Chargers look strong against Baltimore, this line could move, but if they struggle, the Falcons might even become slight favorites. Waiting for more clarity is recommended.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Falcons 20

Pick: Pass for now

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Moneyline: Steelers +124; Bengals -148
Total: 47

This AFC North battle is unpredictable, as divisional games often are. The Steelers have shown resilience despite their offensive struggles, while the Bengals’ offense has been explosive but inconsistent. Cincinnati’s defense has been porous, giving Pittsburgh opportunities to capitalize.

Both teams need a win to stay relevant in the playoff race, but their familiarity with one another complicates predictions. Metrics favor Pittsburgh slightly, but divisional games often defy analytics.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 23

Pick: Pass

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Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at New England Patriots

Moneyline: Colts -148; Patriots +124
Total: 43

This game features two of the league’s most unpredictable teams. The Colts’ offense shows flashes of potential but lacks consistency, while the Patriots have been plagued by quarterback woes and offensive ineffectiveness.

Weather could be a factor, as the game is expected to take place in cold conditions. This might neutralize Indianapolis’ advantage. With neither team particularly reliable, passing on this game is the safest choice.

Prediction: Colts 23, Patriots 20

Pick: Pass

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Moneyline: 49ers +250; Bills -310
Total: 46

Uncertainty around Brock Purdy’s health complicates betting on this game. The Bills have been dominant in recent weeks, with several wins by wide margins. Meanwhile, the 49ers remain a solid team, but injuries to key players make them hard to trust against a surging Buffalo squad.

Teasing Buffalo to -0.5 and adjusting the total to over 40 is a logical play. The Bills’ high-powered offense should be able to score enough, even against San Francisco’s sturdy defense.

Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 17

Pick: Bills -0.5 and Over 40 in a teaser

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5)

Moneyline: Browns +190; Broncos -230
Total: 41.5

The Browns have surprised with their recent performances, but traveling to Denver on short rest is a tough challenge. The Broncos are shaping up to be a top-10 team, with their defense leading the charge and the offense improving week by week.

Jameis Winston’s struggles on the road make the Browns hard to trust in this spot. Denver’s consistency against weaker opponents makes them the safer pick, especially at home. Pairing Denver’s ATS play with the under is an appealing option given both teams’ strong defenses.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Browns 13

Pick: Broncos -5.5 and Under 41.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Carolina Panthers

Moneyline: Buccaneers -270; Panthers +220
Total: 46

Tampa Bay has found its stride offensively, with quarterback Baker Mayfield showing improved efficiency. The Panthers, while still struggling defensively, have started to put together more competent offensive performances.

The Buccaneers are the better team, but covering six points isn’t as straightforward as it once seemed. Taking the moneyline in a teaser or parlay is the safer approach, with the over also looking attractive in what could be a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 23

Pick: Buccaneers ML in a teaser and Over 46

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Los Angeles Rams (-2) at New Orleans Saints

Moneyline: Rams -130; Saints +110
Total: 46.5

The Rams have shown flashes of brilliance, but their inconsistency makes them a tough team to bet on. Meanwhile, the Saints have won two straight games, seemingly turning their season around.

The Rams’ defensive struggles could allow the Saints’ offense to take advantage, particularly at home. This could turn into a high-scoring affair, with the over being the most enticing play.

Prediction: Rams 30, Saints 27

Pick: Over 46.5

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Conclusion

NFL Week 13 offers a variety of intriguing matchups, ranging from divisional showdowns to interconference clashes with playoff implications. While some games, like the Lions and Packers, offer clear betting value, others, such as the Steelers and Bengals, require careful consideration due to unpredictability.

As always, disciplined betting and strategic use of tools like teasers can help maximize returns while minimizing risks. With Thanksgiving providing a feast of football action, there’s plenty to look forward to in Week 13.

FAQs

1. What’s the best teaser strategy for Week 13?

Focus on games with high spreads or close totals, such as teasing the Lions to -4.5 and combining with under 54 or adjusting the Bills to -0.5.

2. How do short weeks affect performance?

Short weeks often favor teams with veteran quarterbacks and stable coaching. For example, Jared Goff and Dan Campbell give the Lions an edge over the Bears.

3. Are divisional games riskier to bet on?

Yes, divisional games often defy metrics due to familiarity between teams. It’s wise to proceed with caution or avoid betting entirely in these cases.

4. Why avoid some games like Colts vs. Patriots?

Unpredictable teams with inconsistent performances create high-risk betting scenarios. Waiting for more clarity or avoiding these games altogether is safer.

5. Should I bet live during Thanksgiving games?

Live betting is a great option during Thanksgiving games, as early trends in play-calling and momentum shifts can help inform better decisions.

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