Five Thirty Eight Predicts Qatar vs Equador

All eyes will be on the opening match in Group A World Cup 2022 between Qatar and Ecuador on Sunday night, November 20. This is a big occasion for the home team, who are playing on the biggest international football stage in their history for the first time.

Meanwhile, Ecuador returned to the World Cup finals after an eight-year absence. In theory, this looks like an easy win for the visitors as the South American side are above Qatar in the FIFA rankings and fourth in the notoriously difficult CONMEBOL qualifiers.

Recently, a supercomputer called Five Thirty Eight has provided analysis to predict the outcome of the match between Qatar and Ecuador. Specifically, Five Thirty Eight points out that Qatar only has a win rate of 24% while this figure with South American representatives is 50%. The two teams have a 26% chance of a draw.

Accordingly, to come up with the above numbers, the Five Thirty Eight supercomputer has applied three steps of analysis, including:

• Calculate the expected number of goals scored by each team in the match. These projected match scores represent the number of goals each team will need to score to maintain the same offensive rating as at the start of the match.

• Use the expected match score and assume that scoring in football follows the Poisson process. Basically a way to model random events at a known rate to generate two Poisson distributions around those ratios. Those give us the possibility that each team will not score a single goal, one goal, two goals, and so on.

• Take two Poisson distributions and turn them into a matrix of all possible scores of the match, from which the probability of winning, losing or drawing can be calculated for each team. To avoid undercounting draws, Five Thirty Eight increases the corresponding probabilities in the matrix.

Thus, with analysis based on AI technology as well as statistics, fans can completely trust these predictions.

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