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One of the important steps in the US election. Photo: VOV

The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

Many believe President Trump will not be able to win again, but he secured a bombshell victory in 2016 despite it seeming unlikely at the time.

In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%.

PRIMARY MODEL:Trump with 91%, Biden just 9% chanese of winning the 2020 presidential election
Chances of winning the 2020 presidential election

According to UK Express, American Political scientist, Mr Helmut Norpoth, claims Mr Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning compared to his rival Mr Biden, who has just 9 percent.

The political scientist’s predictions, in a study released in March, is based on the so-called primary model, which analyses the previous six elections that have taken place in the US. Mr Norpoth has predicted the results of five US elections correctly with the only mistake being Al Gore's defeat to George W Bush in 2000, Express reported.

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Two potential nominees for US election tomorrow. Photo: VNnet

The most important event of US presidents is coming tomorrow, new polls from major polling organizations show an average national lead of 8 percentage points for Biden over Trump in the general election. A poll from The Economist and YouGov shows a favourable 11-point lead for Biden, while a new Emerson poll shows a much closer 5-point lead, as listed in the statista.com.

Biden and Trump had their last televised debate on Oct. 22. After the first debate ended in a disjointed, hollow shouting match, the two candidates allowed themselves to speak and contributed to a more cordial final debate. Polls haven't shifted noticeably toward any candidate, however, and that can only benefit Biden as he looks to secure his polling lead heading into the Nov. 3 election.

As the general election battle reaches its peak, COVID-19 outbreaks are still popping up in the country as schools resume and businesses reopen. Biden has started ramping up advertising campaigns and giving regular socially distanced addresses about the virus and about his policy platform, while Trump continues touring the country holding multiple in-person rallies a day in key swing states.

President Trump plans a second consecutive day of five campaign rallies across an array of battleground states, while Democratic nominee Joe Biden is focusing heavily on Pennsylvania in a bid to block Trump from repeating his electoral college victory of four years ago.
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