PREMIER LEAGUE MATCHWEEK 27: PREDICTIONS, BETTING TIPS AND ODDS
PREMIER LEAGUE MATCHWEEK 27: PREDICTIONS, BETTING TIPS AND ODDS

Burnley v Arsenal: Premier League preview, odds and free bet

One of the big issues with this Burnley team is that they blow hot and cold. You just don't really know which version of them will turn up and, as a neutral, dare I say that this has made the Clarets' games worth watching?

They had seven shots on target in the draw with Leicester last time out but were kept out by Kasper Schmeichel. In the home game before, a 0-0 draw with West Brom, they saw less shots and needed goal line defending to deny the Baggies - Sam Allardyce's men won the Infogol xG battle by a scoreline of 1.42 to 0.63 that day.

Arsenal's win over a depleted Leicester side was a positive in terms of points gained but the Foxes are starting to feel the effects of key absentees. Burnley should have also had three points so the market being influenced by the Gunners' recent results is ignoring the context behind them.

Kick-off time: Saturday, 12:30 GMT

TV channel: BT Sport 1

Home 9/2 | Draw 29/10 | Away 3/5

If this game was being played at the Emirates, I could understand Arsenal being the odds-on price that they are. However, at Turf Moor, it's difficult to oppose Burnley. Their recent record at home has been positive and it's brought them a steady stream of points on the board.

The two Manchester clubs are the only teams to have been successful in denying Burnley at least a draw in their last eleven games at home. The Clarets' overall home form is dragged down by their slow start to the campaign and turning those draws into victories.

Therefore, the 11/8 on BURNLEY OR DRAW ON THE DOUBLE CHANCE is a price that does look too generous when we consider the factors surrounding the game. A team sat in 10th should not be as short as they are to win at a venue that is becoming tricky for the opposition.

Burnley v Arsenal best bets and score prediction

  • Burnley/Draw on double chance at 11/8 (Unibet)

Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1330 GMT (04/03/21)

Manchester City vs Manchester United betting tips: Premier League preview, odds and free bet

Manchester City will be confident they can make it 16 straight Premier League wins and 22 in a row in all competitions against bitter rivals Manchester United in Sunday’s top-of-the-table clash.

Manchester United, on the other hand, laboured to a draw away to Crystal Palace and have now been held in six of their last 10 Premier League matches.

Man City vs Man Utd betting tips

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Half-time result – Man City @ 21/20 with bet365

Over 3 cards in the match @ 1/1 with bet365

Over 6 corners in the match for Man City @ 1/1 with bet365

Man City vs Man Utd odds

Manchester City are 8/15 to win, with a draw priced at 10/3 and Manchester United 5/1 to come away with a big victory on Sunday.

Man City @ 8/15 with bet365

Draw @ 10/3 with bet365

Man Utd @ 5/1 with bet365

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Premier League betting tips: Liverpool v Fulham best bets and preview

Liverpool suffered a fifth successive competitive home defeat for the first time in their history on Thursday night.

Mason Mount’s first-half winner provided a 13/5 winning selection for Sporting Life readers and tipster Tom Carnduff.

Chelsea were deserved victors, this wasn’t a fluky 1-0 win on the break. Instead it was a controlled tactical masterclass from Thomas Tuchel that exposed Liverpool’s defensive frailty.

Kick-off time: Sunday 14:00 BST

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 8/1

Liverpool v Fulham score prediction and best bets

  • 2pts Liverpool -1 handicap at evens (General)
  • 0.5pt Georginio Wijnaldum to score from outside the box at 40/1 (Sky Bet)

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 11:00 GMT on 05/03/21

Chelsea vs Everton betting tips: Premier League preview, odds and free bet

Chelsea vs Everton betting tips

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chelsea & under 2.5 goals @ 5/2 with bet365

Half-time result – draw @ 5/4 with bet365

Mason Mount to score at any time @ 11/5 with bet365

Chelsea vs Everton free bet

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Tip: Chelsea & under 2.5 goals @ 5/2 with bet365

Tip: Half-time result – draw @ 5/4 with bet365

Tip: Mason Mount to score at any time @ 11/5 with bet365

Chelsea vs Everton odds

Chelsea are 8/15 to win, with a draw priced at 3/1 and Everton 11/2 to come away with a big victory on Monday.

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chelsea @ 8/15 with bet365

Draw @ 3/1 with bet365

Everton @ 11/2 with bet365

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Tottenham vs Crystal Palace betting tips: Premier League preview, odds and free bet

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace betting tips

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Tottenham to win to nil @ 7/5 with bet365

Tottenham-Tottenham – half-time/full-time @ 5/4 with bet365

Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 with bet365

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace free bet

Bet365 has a significant new customer offer that is available straight away, so it can be used on Tottenham’s Premier League clash with Crystal Palace. Click below to sign up for the bet365 offer and scroll down to see our expert tipster’s reasoning behind his Tottenham vs Crystal Palace betting tips.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace odds

Tottenham are 9/20 to win, with a draw priced at 7/2 and Crystal Palace 6/1 to come away with a big victory on Sunday.

Tottenham @ 9/20 with bet365

Draw @ 7/2 with bet365

Crystal Palace @ 6/1 with bet365

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Premier League betting tips: Sheffield United v Southampton best bets and preview

Sheffield United picked up their fourth win of the campaign in midweek when beating Aston Villa 1-0 at Bramall Lane, meaning that they are now 12 points from safety.

I am by no means suggesting that they can pull off what would be the greatest of great escapes, but it appears that they are playing with the freedom you expect to see from a team certain of their fate.

While they sit in the relegation zone in both the actual table and in Infogol’s expected goals (xG) table, the Blades have been a tough beat this season, losing by a single goal in 14 of their 21 defeats.

Kick-off time: Saturday, 15:00 GMT

TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League

Home 11/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 21/20

Many wouldn’t have foreseen Southampton's drastic nosedive in form, but the underlying data at the start of the season didn’t back up the strong results, so a downturn of sorts was expected in the analytics community.

They have picked up just one point from their last nine league games, scoring just five goals. That is relegation worthy form.

From an xG standpoint, they are now in the area of the table that their performances have warranted, with the creation of chances their Achilles heel this season, mustering a lowly 1.02 non-penalty expected goals for (xGF).

Southampton are priced as 11/10 favourites generally, and that is just too short for a team winless in nine league games, and a side that don’t create anywhere near enough to win matches regularly.

The Blades will continue to do as they do, which is fight until the end, and I like their chances of avoiding defeat in this one, with goals expected to be few and far between.

Chris Wilder’s side shouldn’t be such a big price, meaning I see value in getting them onside in the double chance market. Sky Bet have boosted SHEFFIELD UNITED or DRAW AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS to an industry leading 5/4, which looks a solid bet to me.

Sheffield United v Southampton best bets and score prediction

  • Sheffield United or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 0945 GMT (05/03/21)

Brighton v Leicester best bets and preview

What a week it has been for Brighton.

After a six-game unbeaten league run, Graham Potter’s side have lost their last two matches, though both rank among the most undeserved defeats of the campaign.

Some of you may look at the prices available in the 1X2 market here and need a second glance given that fifth-bottom Brighton are generally 8/5 favourites to beat a Leicester team sat third in the Premier League table.

You may be even more sceptical given the Seagulls have won just one of 13 home games, but their xG process at the Amex has been sensational, with poor finishing the only reason they have just the one victory.

Kick-off time: Saturday, 20:00 GMT

TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League

Home 8/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 15/8

Only Manchester City (+20.4) have a better expected goal difference (xGD) at home this season than Brighton (+15.8), and the champions-elect are the only side to have accumulated more xP than Potter’s side this term.

Injuries haven’t helped, with Brendan Rodgers missing two of his key attacking threats. James Maddison and Harvey Barnes have both averaged 0.38 expected goal involvements per 95 minutes (xGI/95) this term, and their team in midweek looked bereft of creativity.

Their away form has been the main source of their points haul thus far, with 62% of their points coming on the road, but they have been hugely fortunate defensively, conceding six fewer than would be expected (12 goals conceded, 18.0 expected goals against – xGA).

Leicester average chances equating to 1.29 xGA per game on their travels, and with a makeshift team in defence and attack, this could be a bad spot for the Foxes against a Brighton team that churn out chance after chance.

If they continue to create chances at the rate that they are, Brighton’s fortunes in terms of results will change for the better, and against a team that won’t just sit 10-men behind the ball and defend, Brighton should have plenty space to exploit and create clear cut-chances.

Defensively the Seagulls have been excellent of late, allowing just 0.69 xGA per game over their last eight, so they should be able to keep an undermanned Leicester attack in check.

Brighton v Leicester best bets and score prediction

  • Brighton to win at 13/8 (Betfair)

Score prediction: Brighton 1-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 0945 GMT (05/03/21)

Aston Villa v Wolves - Premier League betting tips - best bets and preview

Andy Madley is the referee and his last seven Premier League outings have all seen at least two cards or more. He isn't a 'card happy' official but has shown he can be strict and the peak in the league this season was six yellows, a red and a penalty in Sheffield United's win over Newcastle.

One selection that does represent good value is the 9/2 available with both Sky Bet and William Hill on MATT TARGETT TO BE SHOWN A CARD. The full-back was shown a yellow in the recent win over Leeds while he was booked in the game against Wolves earlier this season.

While Targett isn't a player who commits a lot of fouls on a regular basis, he will likely come up against either Adama Traore or Pedro Neto, perhaps a mix of the two. Traore is Wolves' most fouled player this season with 2.2 fouls against him on average per game. Neto is on 1.3.

Kick-off time: Saturday, 17:30 GMT

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Home 7/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 2/1

While that 9/2 makes it a good single, the 20/1 available with bet365 on TARGETT AND JOHN MCGINN TO BOTH BE CARDED is also worth a small stakes play. McGinn averages a foul per game and is expected to be heavily involved in the midfield battle.

It's a surprise to see that he has avoided a booking in his last eight Premier League outings. Those games brought a combined eight fouls but McGinn escaped any punishment. He had three fouls in the previous game against Wolves and that is the second-highest for him this season.

Aston Villa v Wolves best bets and score prediction

  • Matt Targett to be shown a card at 9/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)

  • Matt Targett and John McGinn to be shown a card at 20/1 (bet365)

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 1600 GMT (04/03/21)

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