Oscar Futures: Our Last, Best Guess at the Nominations

Sally Polly March 14, 2021 | 08:12

Oscar nominations are upon us, and while we wait for one of the biggest events of 2021, let's take a few best guess and predictions at who will be nominated this year. We will provide you a list of predictions on best pictures, best directors, best actors and actresses, and more.

Photo: Deadline

Best picture

Sustaining buzz throughout any season — let alone history's longest Oscar contest — is a monumental feat, but Chloé Zhao's cross-country technical masterwork Nomadland about a van-dwelling drifter (Frances McDormand) is also a cross-category player currently riding on universally enthusiastic reviews out of the fall festivals, and affection for it has only grown as it steamrolled the Golden Globes' major categories, becoming the first female-directed film to win the Globe for Best Picture - Drama. You can't ignore that kind of endurance — especially in a year as volatile and unpredictable as the unprecedented, fluid, digitally focused awards season we're traversing right now, Entertainment Magazine noted.

Minari

Nomadland

One Night in Miami…

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Director

CREDIT: AMAZON STUDIOS

The DGA nominations provided plenty of insight into where this race is headed—and given the way Nomadland has been sweeping up awards lately, it’s hard to deny that Chloé Zhao is at the top of the pack. Beyond her, there’s an interesting split between exciting up-and-comers like Lee Isaac Chung and Emerald Fennell and a crop of respected veterans whose films aren’t nearly as much at the center of current conversation—Spike Lee, David Fincher, and Aaron Sorkin, according to Vanity Fair.

Chloé Zhao — Nomadland

David Fincher — Mank

Lee Isaac Chung — Minari

Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actress

CREDIT: SEARCHLIGHT PICTURES

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

All season long we wondered which wild-card performer would nab the fifth seat in Best Actress. Andra Day’s surprise Globes win over the other women listed above locked her in for that spot, and as contenders like Amy Adams and Zendaya have seen their films fade, I don’t think any of the core four are in danger, either. (I wouldn’t put too much stock in Mulligan’s snub at the BAFTAs, which seems like the kind of random result you occasionally get with a jury system.)

Best Supporting Actress

CREDIT: FOCUS FEATURES

Before the Golden Globes, the smart money was arriving on the consensus that Glenn Close would finally get her Oscar this year—even for a movie as widely disliked as Hillbilly Elegy. Then Jodie Foster won at the Globes instead. And with the person perceived as her other main threat, Amanda Seyfried, not even nominated for a SAG Award, the field was split wide open. The lineup we’re predicting includes all three of those actors, plus Yuh-Jung Youn of the surging Minari and recent Oscar winner Olivia Colman. Our wild card bet is that Maria Bakalova, the breakout star of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, will be a shocking omission. Given the shared fate of critical favorites Jennifer Lopez, Zhao Shuzhen, and Tiffany Haddish in this category in recent years, it feels prudent to bet on at least one heartbreaking snub, though we’d love to be proven wrong. —K.R.

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman, The Father

Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

Alan Kim, Minari

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

The clear front-runner in this category is Daniel Kaluuya, the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing come Oscar night for his incendiary performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. His toughest competition will come from fellow Golden Globe winner Sacha Baron Cohen—but, at this point, the race doesn’t seem all that close. Leslie Odom Jr. and Chadwick Boseman, with the latter likely to win in the lead-actor category for a different role, are favored to land nominations for their work as well. The fifth slot, though, is a bit of a mystery. Will it go to Sound of Metal’s Paul Raci, who was cleaning up at the critics awards before Kaluuya’s film opened? Or will it be The Little Things’ Jared Leto, who, unlike Raci, scored not only a Golden Globe nomination, but also, more crucially, a Screen Actors Guild nod? Let’s cross our fingers for Raci. —Joanna Robinson

CREDIT: GLEN WILSON/WARNER BROS.

*Click here to read more: Oscars 2021: Schedule, Nominations, Winners, How To Watch

Best Original Screenplay

Mank

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman seems to be riding the wave of buzz at the moment, so count it in for now. But Radha Blank is absolutely one to watch for, as her stellar Forty-Year-Old Version script has stormed the indie-leaning precursors, indicating sustained passion where it counts.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nomadland

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

One Night in Miami…

The Father

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

In this increasingly crowded category, a path to victory seems clear for no one at this early stage, but, considering initial reviews and a key Globe nom, Zhao's powerful story stands a healthy chance at keeping the competition at bay — for now.

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