Daily Gold Price (Today February 2): Short-term outlook, Forecast and Updates
Gold prices fall to Rs 47,960 per 10 gm, silver trends at Rs 69,800 a kg
Gold price today fell to Rs 47,960 per 10 gm from Rs 48,800. Silver price soared to Rs 69,800 per kg according to the Good Returns.
Gold jewellery price varies across India, the second-largest consumer of the metal, due to excise duty, state taxes, and making changes.
In New Delhi, the price of 22-carat gold stayed at Rs 47,800 per 10 gm, while in Chennai it was at Rs 46,560. In Mumbai, the rate was at Rs 47,960. The price of 24-carat gold in Chennai was at Rs 50,780 per 10 gm.
The gem and jewelry industry has sought a reduction in customs duty on gold to four per cent, withdrawal of tax collected at source (TCS), cut in import duty on polished precious and semi-precious gemstones, in the upcoming Union Budget 2021-22.
All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) Chairman Ashish Pethe told PTI, "We urge the government to reduce the customs duty to 4 percent from the current 12.5 percent. If the tax rate is not kept at this level, it will encourage smuggling and encourage people to do unorganized business."
He further urged the government to keep goods falling under HSN-71 (Harmonised System Nomenclature) out of the purview of TCS provisions as the number of funds blocked in TCS is 6.67 times more than the ability to pay income tax, resulting in blockage of funds.
Meanwhile, in the international market, Silver rose more than 4 percent on Friday following a near 5 percent gain on Thursday that came after messages on Reddit urged retail investors to pile into the market in an attempt to push prices higher.
Precious metals were also helped by a retreat inequities as hedge funds and retail investors continue to battle overvaluations and European countries fight over COVID-19 vaccine supply, with gold up more than 1%.
Silver surged as much as 7% on Thursday after calls circulated on Reddit for people to buy silver mining stocks and iShares Silver Trust, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by physical metal, in a GameStop-style squeeze.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD fills the gap above $1,850 inside immediate ascending triangle
Gold drops to $1,851.39 while trimming the gains to 0.50% during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the yellow metal stays inside a short-term ascending triangle, Fxstreet reported.
Given the bearish MACD favoring the quote’s further downside, gold sellers will wait for a clear break of the triangle’s support, currently around $1,840, for fresh entries.
Following that, the previous week’s low near $1,830 and January’s low near $1,802, also the $1,800 threshold, can entertain the commodity sellers.
On the contrary, $1,870 can please the short-term buyers during the bullion’s fresh run-up.
It should, however, be noted that the bulls are likely to remain cautious until the gold prices rally beyond $1,875, comprising the highs marked since January 21. In doing so, the bulls will eye the mid-November 2020 top surrounding $1,900.
Overall, gold prices are likely fading the upside momentum. Though, sellers are waiting for confirmation.
Gold hourly chart
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls await ascending triangle breakout
Gold opened with a bullish gap on the first day of a new trading week, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and remained below three-week tops touched on Friday. The precious metal benefitted from the spillover effect of a short-squeeze in silver – similar to what was seen in GameStop shares during the previous week. However, a combination of factors held bulls from placing aggressive bets and kept a lid on any further gains for the commodity.
A solid rebound in the US equity markets was seen as one of the key factors capping gains for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Apart from this, reports that ten Republican senators urged US President Joe Biden to cut the $1.9 trillion price tag on his proposed COVID-19 stimulus package further weighed on the non-yielding yellow metal. In fact, Republicans pitched a plan with a reported $600bn to garner bipartisan support. More details are due to be released later this Monday.
Meanwhile, fading hopes for rapid approval of additional US economic stimulus measures was evident from the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, undermined the US dollar and might help limit any meaningful slide for the dollar-denominated commodity. Market participants now look forward to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some trading impetus. The key focus, however, will remain on the broader market risk sentiment and the US stimulus headlines.
From a technical perspective, the recent recovery from the vicinity of the $1800 mark has been along upward-sloping trend-line support. This, along with a strong horizontal resistance near the $1875-76 region, constitutes the formation of an ascending triangle on hourly charts. Ascending triangles have a bullish bias and are typically seen as a continuation pattern, though sometimes mark a reversal.
A sustained strength beyond the triangle resistance will suggest that the commodity has bottomed out in the near-term and set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move. Bulls might then aim to reclaim the $1900 mark before pushing the XAU/USD further towards the $1922-24 supply zone.
On the flip side, any meaningful slide might continue to attract some buying near the triangle support, currently near the $1842 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support level will negate the constructive outlook and prompt some technical selling. The precious metal might then accelerate the fall further towards intermediate support near the $1830 region before eventually sliding back to challenge the $1800 round-figure mark.
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