Daily gold price (January 27): Short-term outlook, Forecast and Updates
Gold price remains unchanged at Rs 49,330 per 10 gm, silver at Rs 66,700/kg
Gold price on Tuesday was stable at Rs 49,330, while the silver price was trending at Rs 66,700 per kg-- the same as yesterday, according to the Good Returns website.
Gold jewellery price varies across India, the second-largest consumer of the metal, due to excise duty, state taxes, and making changes.
In New Delhi, the price of 22-carat gold stayed at Rs 48,090 per 10 gm, while in Chennai it fell to Rs 46,360. In Mumbai, the rate remained at Rs 48,330 according to the Good Returns website. The price of 24-carat gold in Chennai was Rs 50,610 per 10 gm.
Gold rate in Bangalore for ten grams of 22-carat remains at Rs. 45,940 and that of 24-carat gold is at Rs. 50,120. While the gold rate in Hyderabad is at Rs 45,940 per ten gram of 22-carat gold and that of 24 carat is at Rs. 50,120, Thehansindia reported.
The gold rate in Kerala is at Rs 45,940 per 10 gram of 22 carats and the rate of ten grams of 24 carats is at Rs. 50,120. In Visakhapatnam, the gold rates have followed the same trends with Rs. 45,940 and Rs. 50,120 per ten grams of 22 carats and 24 carats respectively.
In the international market, Gold prices pared gains on Monday as the dollar edged higher, but expectations of fresh US fiscal stimulus underpinned the bullion ahead of this week's Federal Reserve's meeting.
Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at $1,854.81 by 2:22 p.m. EST (1922 GMT), after rising as much as 0.8 per cent. US gold futures settled 0.1 per cent lower to $1,855.20 perounce. The dollar was up 0.2 per cent, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
"We're starting to get early indications that the dollar index has hit a near-term bottom. If that's the case, a rising dollar would work against the precious market bulls," said Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff.
"The prospect of inflation down the road given all the stimulus and central bank easing that has made the world financial system awash in cash, that's supportive (for gold) on a longer term basis."
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD cracks key $1857 support as USD firms up, levels to watch – Confluence Detector
Gold (XAU/USD) has erased early gains and turns south on Tuesday, as the haven demand for the US dollar is back on the rise amid escalating American-Sino tensions. Strains between the world’s two biggest economies resurfaced over the South China Sea issue after a US carrier group entered the disputed waters last week, according to Fxstreet.
Also, fading prospects of US President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan likely to be passed by US Congress keep sentiment around gold undermined. Worsening risk-aversion ahead of the critical US Durable Good and Consumer Confidence data will keep any upside attempts in the metal elusive.
Gold Price Chart: Key resistances and supports
The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that gold has breached critical support at $1857, where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month converged with the SMA50 one-hour.
The next relevant support awaits at $1851, the SMA10 one-day.
On a break below the latter, the price is likely to face a dense cluster of support levels around $1848, which is the intersection of the previous day low, SMA200 one-day and Fibonacci 38.2% one-week.
The bears could challenge the $1837 cushion, the pivot point one-day S2 if the selling pressure intensifies.
On the flip side, recapturing a powerful $1857 barrier is critical to extending the recovery towards $1863, the previous high four-hour.
Further north, the previous day high at $1867 could be back on the bulls’ radar.
The intersection of the previous week high and Fibonacci23.6% one-month around $1876 will be the level to beat for the XAU bears.
Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Expecting Sideways Price Action Until Wednesday’s Fed Announcements
We could be looking at a rangebound trade until after the release of the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions on Wednesday, said Fxempire.
Gold futures are putting in a choppy performance on Monday with traders tracking a two-sided trade in stock indexes, the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields. The price action suggests investor indecision but this time of trading action usually leads to a volatile breakout move. The direction is unclear at this time due to the offsetting fundamentals.
Treasury yields are falling sharply, but gold is trading lower. This tells us just how weak demand for gold is. It also reminds us that gold is not a safe-haven asset.
At 18:42 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1858.70, down $1.20 or -0.06%.
US Dollar Could Be Forming Support Base
Although most currency analysts expect a broad dollar decline during 2021, the short-term outlook for the greenback appears to be leaning to the upside, with recent price action suggesting a support base could be forming.
Further supporting the idea of an oversold U.S. Dollar is government trading data. According to data released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week to January 19, the next speculative short position on the dollar grew to its largest in ten years.
This opens the door to a potentially bullish short-covering rally that would likely crush gold prices over the short-run.
Traders Eye-Balling Stimulus Talks and Fed
In a phone call on Sunday with Republican and Democrat lawmakers, officials in President Biden’s administration tried to head off Republican concerns that the $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal – hopes for which have lifted market sentiment since the U.S. elections last year – was too expensive.
The U.S. Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal that he has no plans to wind back the Fed’s massive stimulus any time soon – news which could push the dollar down further.
We could be looking at a rangebound trade until after the release of the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions on Wednesday.
The biggest fear for bullish gold traders is likely to be a surprise short-covering rally in the U.S. Dollar due to the massive short position being built in the March Dollar Index futures contract.
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