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With one week remaining in the 2025 regular season, the NFL Draft picture is coming into focus — and the battle at the very top is far from settled.
Week 17 delivered multiple late-season swings that reshuffled the projected 2026 first-round order. Most notably, the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders remain deadlocked at the bottom of the standings, setting up a dramatic finish that could decide the No. 1 overall pick.
Strength of schedule currently favors the Giants, but one more result could flip everything.
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| 2026 NFL Draft |
Projected 2026 NFL Draft – First-Round Order (After Week 17)
| Pick | Team | Record | Key Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 2–13 | Hold tiebreaker via weaker SOS |
| 2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 2–13 | One loss from claiming No. 1 |
| 3 | New York Jets | 3–13 | Locked into top-three pick |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | 3–13 | Tiebreakers push them down |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 3–13 | Multiple needs across roster |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | 4–12 | Week 17 win dropped them slightly |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | 4–12 | Rebuild continues |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | 6–10 | Missed playoffs |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6–10 | Down year alters draft position |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6–10 | Late wins hurt draft stock |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams (via Falcons) | 6–9 | Acquired via trade |
| 12 | Miami Dolphins | 7–9 | Quarterback questions loom |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7–9 | Transition year |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 7–7–1 | League’s only tie |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | 8–7 | Just outside playoff cut |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 8–8 | Middle of draft order |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 8–8 | Tiebreaker dependent |
| 18 | New York Jets (via Colts) | 8–8 | Second first-round pick |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 8–8 | Fringe playoff contender |
| 20–32 | Playoff Teams | — | Final order TBD after postseason |
Note: Picks 20–32 will be finalized based on playoff results.
Why the Top of the Draft Is Still Unsettled
Giants vs. Raiders: The No. 1 Pick Showdown
Both teams enter Week 18 at 2–13. The Giants currently own the top selection due to a weaker strength of schedule, but a win — or a Raiders loss — would immediately change the order.
Jets Secure Multiple First-Round Picks
The Jets’ Week 17 loss locked them into the No. 3 overall pick. They also hold an additional first-round selection from Indianapolis, giving them rare flexibility near the top and middle of Round 1.
Browns Slide After Late Win
Cleveland’s victory over Pittsburgh removed them from top-five contention but still keeps them firmly in the top 10, where premium talent remains available.
Week 18 Will Decide the Top Pick
According to league tiebreaker rules, the Giants currently own the top selection due to a weaker strength of schedule. However, the Yahoo analysis emphasizes that any Giants win or Raiders loss could immediately reverse the order, making Week 18 decisive.
Jets’ Draft Capital Is a Major Storyline
New York is locked into the No. 3 overall pick and also owns Indianapolis’ first-rounder. Yahoo notes that the Jets are one of the few teams with both premium draft position and multiple first-round assets, positioning them as either a quarterback suitor or a trade-down candidate.
Chiefs and Bengals Slide Into Unfamiliar Territory
Both Kansas City and Cincinnati sit inside the top 10 — a rare scenario for two recent contenders. Yahoo highlights that late-season losses have cost both teams draft leverage, but also present opportunities to reload with high-end talent.
Browns’ Late Win Carries Consequences
Cleveland’s Week 17 victory over Pittsburgh moved them out of top-five range. While that reduces access to elite quarterback prospects, Yahoo notes the Browns still project to have access to high-impact defensive and offensive line talent.
How the NFL Draft Order Works
Non-playoff teams pick first, ordered by worst record. Ties are broken by strength of schedule. Playoff teams are slotted after non-playoff clubs based on postseason advancement, then regular-season record.
What to Watch in Week 18
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Giants vs. Raiders tiebreaker implications
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Potential movement among picks 4–7
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Trade-up scenarios as quarterback-needy teams finalize draft slots
The top of the 2026 NFL Draft board is set for a dramatic finish. While much of Round 1 is now defined, the most important pick of all remains up for grabs.
